You have already created an advantage over those who offer odds or bet on other sports by choosing tennis to be your preferred sport of betting. You will need to first understand two basic principles in order to use this “edge” consistently to make money. Next, apply mathematics’ power.
It is a foolish thing to place a bet on tennis (or any other sport) with a traditional bookmaker. It is an axiom that “You can’t defeat the bookie”; the bookie just cannot be beat over time. This is because the odds of winning are always in the favor of the bookmaker. Everybody knows or should know that the punter’s mathematical advantage against the bookmaker is essential for him to make a profit and keep his business afloat.
The new type of betting that computer technology has created is “exchange betting” (or “matched betting”). There is no bookie to beat with “betting exchanges”, which means there is no middle man. Every punter can place a bet against any other punter, or even punters, out there in the Internet ether. Any punter or “trader” can place a back bet that a team or player will win and/or a lay bet that a team or player will lose. Any punter can act as either an ordinary bettor or a bookmaker.
Exchange betting is not managed by any third-party. Instead, the odds are set by the punters. They place requests for odds at the prices at which they would be willing to place bets (if acting as an ordinary bettor) or offer odds at which bets they would be willing to place (if acting as a bookmaker).
The exchange betting website matches all back bets with all lay bets as the “lay” and “back” bettors lower their odds. The winnings are automatically credited to the accounts of “layers” or “backers” a few seconds following the event’s conclusion.
Evidently, technology to provide such a fair betting service must be paid. This payment comes in the form a commission on the net winnings of the punter on an event (or market). This means that commission is only charged on the positive difference between wins and losses in the same event.
This system of betting is as fair as possible.
The reason there are so few betting exchanges is that the software used to make them is too complicated and expensive. Betfair is the dominant exchange betting website, accounting for about 90% of the market as of this writing. Other exchange betting sites include Betfair, ibetX and Betsson. Matchbook is also available. The World Bet Exchange (WBX) is another. Betfair is the most well-known because it is the first to offer “perfectly fair” betting and can be trusted to perform quickly and accurately.
Why does betting on tennis give you an “edge” over other sports betting? Even those who play tennis often overlook the simple answer. Even if you have never beent on tennis before, the importance of the scoring system for the betting would be a surprise to you.
This is the fundamental difference between tennis’ scoring system and any other sport.
Other sports and games require that the team or player in the back must win a point for each point they lose to make up the points gap. Only then can they move forward. This is a well-known fact.
The first set can be lost by the trailing team or player 6-0, possibly with a deficit up to 24 points. The team that wins the second set can win it by the narrowest margin, 7-6 in tie-break. This is a rare, but possible, possibility. The following is the 188bet login.
The two sides are now tied if the team or player trailing wins the second set. Even though one team or player might have won more points, it is still a tie.
This can often have a profound psychological effect on either side, which impacts the way they play the next few minutes and, therefore, the betting odds offered to punters. However, this is a different aspect of tennis betting that may be covered in another article. This article will discuss the mathematical aspects of tennis betting and how you can win with this knowledge.
How to win in tennis betting
These are the two basic principles of tennis betting. How can you make them work for you?
It is important to not be a “backer” and/or a layer, but simply bet on the outcome of an event. You will lose your money over time if you do this. There is always a slight difference between the “back”, and “lay” odds. This is because it’s impossible for anyone to offer odds, and therefore there would be no need for you to bet. Add that to the commission you pay on net winnings and you have a mathematical “edge”.
To win at tennis betting, you must be both a “backer”, and a layer at different times during the event. This aspect of betting is what separates the exchange betting website from the traditional bookie. The betting exchange allows you to place back or lay bets at any point during an event. This includes the last second or final point. This is called “in-play” gambling.
In-play betting allows for the possibility that the odds of each side changing sides as the event progresses are determined by the probability (as perceived and interpreted by punters) that one or the other side will be the eventual winner. It is possible to place a back wager on one side at a certain odds, and then later, place a lay or back bets on the other side at better odds. As fortunes change and your odds of winning increase, this will work out in your favor. This will ensure that you win your overall bet regardless of what happens.
Why not bet on tennis, but other sports?
Other than Principle #2, tennis is a great place to bet on swing betting because the odds fluctuate at every point. Therefore, there are very few small swings from one side to the other. Because goals are rare, this doesn’t happen in soccer. A goal can shift the advantage abruptly and dramatically to the side that scored it.
A tennis match can only have two outcomes; there cannot be a draw or tie. Only one player or team can win. Horse racing is an example of this. The winner may be chosen from among many runners.
It is more difficult to win if there are more outcomes to consider. Despite this obvious logic soccer and horse racing are still the most popular betting sports, likely due to historical reasons. As more people realize that betting on tennis is more profitable than any other sport, it has already risen to third place.
Are you looking for “In-play” or “pre-event” betting?
It is now that you have hopefully understood the basics of tennis scoring and exchange betting, it is time for you to learn the specifics of how you can win in tennis betting.
It was said that you can win at tennis betting by being both a backer and a layer. However, this is not the only way to win. As fortunes shift in your favor, bets should be placed at different points throughout the event. This is possible with both “in play” and “pre-event” betting.
Scalping is one method of in-play betting. Scalping, as its name implies, is a way to make a small profit by backing or placing at the exact moment when the odds are moving in your favor. This could be when one player scores two or more consecutive points. Then, you can repeat the process over and over again. Scalping is time-consuming, stressful and can cause mental and physical tension. You must not only pay attention to the live broadcast of the match, but also be able to spot the best moments to place your bet. This is made difficult by the 5-second delay that the exchange betting software places between placing the bet and accepting it.
This is why we aren’t going to go into detail. As stated before, the article is about winning with mathematics and not your sweat. Maths involves betting before the event begins, and not during it. Pre-event betting is also known.
Mathematics do not lie!
There are several tennis betting systems, some manual and others that use software programs. Some of these are extremely complicated. The author (a mathematician) discovered that all of them require input from the bettor at some point. This is the probability factor, which is the odds that your “balancing” wager (the “lay”, or “back” bets on the opposing sides) will be activated. It gives you the “win-win” scenario.
How do you calculate the probability factor’s value? This, dear reader is the key point of the whole thing, the linchpin that holds any exchange betting system together and determines if it succeeds, fails, or wins.
This probability factor was determined, at least until now, by either the experience of some seasoned gamblers or trial-and-error guesswork from lesser mortals. It is no surprise that many punters lose their money or fail to win as much as they could, because they don’t know the exact value they need to maximize their winnings.
To maximize your chances of winning, accuracy is essential when calculating the probability factor. It was not possible to find a website that could calculate it. It was therefore developed by the writer and named the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator. By simply entering the pre-event odds for both sides, the probability factor can be calculated to two decimal places. This has allowed the writer to consistently make more than 10% from tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.
Parallel to the test, the writer placed bets based on “gut feeling” in sufficient numbers to establish an overall trend. The result was a 10% loss in working capital (or “bank”)
Another test was done using the Abacus exchange Betting Calculator. This involved betting on sports with small odds swings, such as American Football, Snooker, and Darts. These matches are very long, otherwise the swings would be too large. These results were not worth the commissions on winnings.
The algorithm or mathematical formula discussed here is only compatible with the unique scoring system for tennis.
The writer is a scientist and believes it is possible to win consistently at sports betting over time if the following factors are present.
1. It is not a traditional betting site that is being used. Many sites offering exchange betting appear in search engine results when you type “exchange betting”. Make sure that the software allows you to both back and lay bets against other punters. You can check their website to see if it looks similar to Betfair.
2. Tennis is a unique sport because of its scoring system.
3(a). You are able to learn about in-play betting, and you can be prepared to spend almost all of your time looking at a computer screen and following every match simultaneously.
3(b). Software that informs you in a matter of minutes exactly what odds you should request and offer, and how much to place in pre-event bets allows you to continue your daily life.